This invention relates to an apparatus and method for describing and predicting how organizations will perform across the emergence of different types of events. As a descriptive tool the invention accounts for performance by examining the means or processes (e.g., the planning, organizing, directing and evaluation) of people, material resources and events that shape an organization's performance—the way the organization translates ideas, plans and effort into action. As a predictive tool the invention stipulates expected levels of performance in the management of emerging events—what an organization is likely to do in given situations or circumstances.
Whether examined in terms of a means or an end, performance is an important focal point for those interested in understanding what to expect from an organization. Be that organization a business (for profit or not), a military unit or its terrorist adversary, a recreational or professional sports team, performance is a primary indicator of the organization's value, effectiveness, or even attractiveness for existing, new or potential stakeholders. Organizational performance can be so important to stakeholders that whole systems can be created to track, measure and describe if the performance one expects from an organization matches what is observed.
Several factors can influence whether desired levels of performance are achieved, however. For example, people in the organization are among the internal factors affecting an organization's performance. In this instance such tangibles as their competencies or experience and more elusive characteristics like attitudes or beliefs can be important contributors to an organization's performance. Indeed, and as many managers have discovered, virtually every aspect of performance ultimately rests with the choices made at a given moment by people in the organization.
An organization's processes, practices and procedures are a second internal element that can effect performance. Design, clarity, and complexity are typical features of an organization's processes and procedures that can directly effect performance. Processes that are incomplete or poorly conceived or that are needlessly cumbersome or poorly organized may lead to poor performance of both members of the organization or the organization as a whole. Indeed, often errors associated with a final product, action or activity can be associated with a faulty process or procedure.
The organization's internal make-up or architecture represents the “hard” elements of an organization—its structure, the tools, equipment or the materials used to do a job or accomplish a task. An organization's internal features and characteristics provide an indication of the organization's preparedness or capacity to handle challenges to performance. An organization's structure, for example, as defined through its hierarchy can influence performance via constraints or impact on communication and information flows, planning, organizing and evaluation of personnel, projects, programs or the organization itself. So, too, material or equipment may be correct or not for a task, in sufficient supply or not or, in some cases, simply beyond the skills or competencies of those expected to use them.
External factors also can shape an organization's performance. Competitors or the weather are typical examples. All organizations have some form of competitor, some adversary. Competitors are naturally occurring challenges for businesses, sport or recreational organizations and even for charitable or non-profit organizations “competing” for the same limited resources (e.g., charitable dollars.) Like internal factors, external factors such as competitors can have either direct or indirect influence on performance.
Direct effects are obvious. One army attacks another disabling a supporting flank, causing the defending military organization to shift resources which in turn, impacts the performance of the other flanks. In another organization the surprise, early release of a new product catches competing organizations off guard, forcing them to make changes to their product or planned release dates or face loss of sales performance.
Indirect effects can be more subtle but just as dramatic. Laws, rules and regulations posted by a regulatory agency can shape an organization's performance without direct intervention. Even perceptions, apprehensions or anxieties over possible events or actions can shape performance. Concern over an adversary's meeting with a potential ally can have an indirect effect on the performance of organizations as they shape their behavior in terms of what “might” happen or result.
The effects of performance are a product of the mixture direct and indirect factors. A terrorist organization detonates a bomb on an airplane resulting in a loss of life (direct effect) but that same action can result in related indirect effects (e.g., disruptions in travel, loss of revenue, decline in the economic performance of a nation's airline industry or the nation itself.)
Competitors in the form of individuals outside the organization also can affect its performance. An injured consumer brings a lawsuit against an organization for damages forcing the organization to alter performance to manage damage to its image or the claims and legal action brought against it. A politician spreads rumors about an opponent hoping to negatively effect the latter's performance during the campaigning process and, ideally, in the coming election. A basketball player rushes down the court and, in the process, injures the opposing team's best scorer, negatively impacting that team's potential scoring performance capabilities. A contractor misses the scheduled delivery of key components to a manufacturing center forcing that organization to idle production and perhaps miss key performance objectives.
Each of these illustrates ways the actions of individuals or groups outside of one organization can, intentionally or not, effect another organization's performance. Organizational performance also is susceptible to other factors. Natural phenomena like a storm that prevents people from getting to work or damages an organization's facilities can impact performance. A virus, like the flu, which infects a significant portion of the population such that people cannot participate in an organization's activities, can influence performance. Or, at the extreme, the death of a key figure that results in a slow down of performance out of respect for the deceased individual or the termination of activity because the organization cannot function without that person, clearly are negative effects on organizational performance.
Activities and events are designed by organizations typically are expected to have a positive impact on that organization's performance. Programs, especially those designed to improve the performance associated with specific processes, can impact quality, service delivery or the general competencies of those within the organization. These programs often have specific performance improvement goals as their objective. Safety programs can target performance associated with tools or materials while sales and marketing programs can improve the selling performance of a sales force or the buying performance of existing or potential customers. These types of programs change or establish performance patterns that meet certain criteria, for example, a sales quota or market share.
Programs designed to stop types of performance deemed undesirable or inappropriate are widely used. Conflict management programs aim at ending disruptive behavior while substance abuse programs seek to simultaneously stop one type of behavior while reinforcing or encouraging another type of desired behavior or level of performance. Some programs are passive in nature, perhaps seeking to create a sense of awareness about desired or expected levels of performance. At other times, special events like “safety days,” or the U.S. government's posted “security threat levels” are associated with programs designed to increase awareness about future potential performance issues more than to improve current performance.
Performance management programs usually seek organization-wide changes. There are programs that aim at improving an individual's performance—especially in instances where the existing performance is problematic. The focus of these performance management programs is captured in the carefully labeled performance criteria or indicators used to gauge performance.
The use of specific criteria or performance indicators is an important feature. In contrast to the broader performance improvement efforts discussed above, these specific programs tend to be “goal” or “other state” oriented (e.g., “let's hit a target of $400 Million in sales for this year,” or “Let's be recognized for providing excellent not poor customer service.”) Performance management criteria also define both acceptable and unacceptable levels of performance, often within the context of a quantifiable range or scale associated with the criteria and performance.
In these programs performance is not merely good or bad, poor or excellent. Rather, one might describe performance as observed along a continuum, ranging from a high level, for example, “outstanding” or “superior” to a lower level, “exceeds expectations,” through a middle point, “meets expectations.” Labels like, “below expectations” and “unacceptable” define the continuum's negative side. Describing performance in this manner provides for a broad understanding of what one is observing (e.g., “how much,” “how often,” “how well”) and enables researchers to use higher levels of mathematics in the analysis of the performance observed.
Various tools exist to aid organizational performance management. For example a common theme of some of tools focuses on efforts to improve performance management in areas or systems within or attached to larger organizations. U.S. Pat. No. 6,389,331 issued to Jensen, et al. on May 14, 2002 discloses a facilities management system for buildings. This system monitors performance of a building's different components and is grounded in a.) defining operational parameters for the building's overall management system, b.) global performance indicators for key components (security, heating, ventilation, fire detection) and c.) a means for identifying malfunctioning components of the facilities as they occur. The building's components are networked together enabling the control of entire building from a system of workstations distributed throughout. When a component (heating, ventilation, etc.) fails, an alarm sounds notifying the operator.
U.S. Pat. No. 5,164,983 issued to Brown, et al. on Nov. 17, 1992 discloses a performance management system for use in telemarketing complexes. The system manages current call traffic but can be adjusted to handle new or increasing incoming calls. This enables the telemarketing center to better manage workload and U.S. Pat. No. 6,751,650 issued to Finch, et al. Jun. 15, 2004 discloses a system for monitoring the performance of contractors hired by a firm.
A second performance management theme is reflected in patents describing improvements in the use of tools, equipment or processes associated with their use. U.S. Pat. No. 6,990,437 issues to Abu El Ata on Jan. 24, 2006 describes a method and systems for determining performance metrics associated with a business entity's information system (IS) architecture's optimal performance. Central to this patent is the construction of four models associated with the business entity and its information system (IS). These models include 1.) a business process model representing the organization's business operations, 2.) an applications model for software elements used in performing the business' operations, 3.) a data model that reflects the physical requirements needed to support the software elements and, 4.) a technical infrastructure model representing an IS architecture design that can be implemented to meet the established physical requirements noted in 3, above. Beyond targeting the particular needs and requirements of the business entity's IS architecture design, this patent includes within its scope improvement of performance in the organization's overall information management system.
U.S. Pat. No. 6,834,274 issued to Tafoya on Dec. 21, 2004 illustrates another attempt to improve an organization's performance by targeting an operational practice or system, in this case the manner in which organizations manage knowledge. Creating, updating and utilizing a knowledge database is this patent's focus. The thesis is that better management of information coming into the organization and better management of its storage and retrieval will lead to improved transformation of the information into knowledge and, in turn, improved performance.
A third theme associated with performance management in organizations it that which describes efforts to manage or account for the impact of events on an organization. Attempts to anticipate the occurrence of events vis a vis the organization often appear as early warning systems to help the organization better manage future performance in light of the occurrence of a possible event. The scope of these systems can range from attempts to prepare for events that impact individuals to those which may be of specific impact to certain organizations or, finally, whole groups of organizations or societies. U.S. Pat. No. 6,003,402 issued to Klass, et al. on Jan. 31, 2006 is an example of the first type. This patent presents a system and method anticipating potential Adverse Drug Events (ADE) in a patient's medical regimen. The process described is associated with a loosely constructed organization comprised of patients, lab and pharmacies, and healthcare providers. Key features of this system include 1.) the establishment of predetermined ADE rules defining ranges for lab tests, drugs and Adverse Drug Events, 2.) the use of a database and search engine for comparing lab and pharmacy data and the aforementioned predetermined ADE rules and, 3.) monitoring and communication processes for use throughout the system.
U.S. Pat. No. 6,985,771 issued to Fischell, et al. on Jan. 10, 2006 is another illustration of attempts to manage or account for the impact of events at the individual level. This patent presents a rapid response system for the detection and treatment of cardiac events, for example, heart attacks. In this patent, patients with a history of cardiac events have an electronic monitoring device implanted into their bodies. This device contains information about the patient and has the capacity to detect, for example, when there is insufficient flow of blood in at least one coronary artery. The device transmits a wireless signal to a receiving station when an event is detected and a warning signal alerts the patient of a potential cardiac event.
U.S. Pat. No. 5,521,813 issued to Fox et al. on May 26, 1996 illustrates attempts to examine the impact of events on segments of society or an industry. In this case, this patent (and related ones also issued to Fox et al.) seek to help organizational performance in the retail and related industries by helping mangers improve their buying patterns vis a vis long term weather forecasts. The assumptions behind the Fox et al. patents are that by better understanding future weather patterns and events, clothing manufacturers and merchants, energy suppliers and other weather-dependent organizations could better utilize their physical space, advertising and promotional spending and their overall inventory management strategies.
U.S. Pat. No. 4,656,867 issued to Sasaki on Apr. 14, 1987 seeks to forecast earthquakes by examining the formation of cirrus clouds under certain conditions. This process suggests using satellite or television images of cloud formations and seeks to associate the presence of the targeted cirrus cloud formations with the epicenter of a future earthquake. Finally, U.S. Pat. No. 5,585,558 issued to Zhelonkin et al. on Dec. 17, 1996 also seeks to forecast the occurrence of catastrophic events (i.e., those defined as phenomena what are proceeded by enormous gains in the energy state of a region) like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, tsunamis or an accident at a nuclear reactor. Forecasts of potential catastrophes are prepared on the basis of information received at monitoring stations distributed across particular geographic regions. These stations are equipped with sensors and other equipment capable of discerning changes in the region's energy levels and, subsequently, communicating observed changes to central locations.
The prior art seeks to describe or forecast system performance vis a vis events, typically around neatly defined variables—a specific type of event, a particular type of setting or, to improve a particular activity. A rigid focus had advantages, but it can leave gaps in the treatment, understanding or use of a solution. The mechanisms and approaches associated with the invention described below address gaps and shortcomings or issues simply not addressed by the prior art.
A primary distinction between what exists and what's offered is that this invention is that it is not organization-specific but can be used across any type of organization. Organizational features like size, complexity or mission are not limiting features. The invention reflects a society's broad setting where for-profit businesses interact with charitable organizations; where large, sophisticated military organizations compete with small, fluid terrorist organizations; and, where organizations established for sports, recreation or leisure must interact with and follow the prescriptions of regulatory organizations.
This invention also approaches events differently than the prior art. The invention is not limited to examining the impact of a specific event or type of event on an organization. The event classification system described herein is unique in that it offers a means for describing, observing and evaluating a typology of events, from those initiated by an organization to those effecting an organization but are not within the organization's span of control. This orientation to events contributes to one's understanding of both events and organizations by allowing for examination of the dynamic nature of each. In this invention, the occurrence of a given event is viewed as a phenomenon which may or may not be the primary factor triggering or demanding an organization's response or testing its capacity to respond. For example, it may not be the emergence of a tornado that will test the organization's capacity to respond, but the resulting floods, fires or injuries associated with the event. Events here are approached in terms of intensity or as potential risks or threats and this allows for finer levels of analysis and description.
A third contribution of this invention over what's available is it's emphasis on anchoring its analysis on the nature and make-up of the organizations studied, thus helping to control for the role of an event vis a vis features of the organization, per se. Metaphorically, organizations are like trees and the events they have to manage are like storms. Some trees bend with the wind, have limb and branch structures which allow for reduced wind resistance and/or root systems that are well-established or deeply embedded in the ground. The ability of these trees to withstand severe storms is very different from those with rigid structure that can break in high winds, that have broader surface resistance areas because of a heavy branch and foliage system or, a potentially weaker, surface root system. This invention isolates elements that define an organization's form and function and includes these in its algorithms, models and processes.
This invention's delineation of the effects of an event on an organization makes a fourth contribution in two ways. First, effects associated with the an event's emergence are viewed as multi-dimensional and are defined in terms of several elements: products, results, impacts and consequences. Viewing effects as dynamic and multidimensional adds perspective and depth to the analysis of ways events challenge an organization's capabilities. For example, rather than simply treating the observed event as the unit of analysis, this invention treats effects as a population of factors (outcomes) comprised of sets of distinct but related elements (products, results, impacts and consequences.) This approach facilitates a more complete explication of the complexities associated with events especially vis a vis the organization.
Secondly, this invention is offers a unique way for conducting an in-depth examination of effects by a.) focusing attention on the inter-relationship among products, outcomes, impacts and consequences and b.) linking, whenever possible, the relationship among these effects to the nature of the event and organization examined. In short, this invention does not stop with, for example, the description and prediction of an event but, rather, sees the obvious event as a manifestation of and sometimes a catalyst for the emergence of subsequent events.
Finally, this invention focuses on performance as a product of the conjunction of both the event and features and characteristics of the organization and, in turn, seeks to describe and predict all three. Centering discussion around performance as a function of the event is a useful tool for understanding the magnitude of events on organizations. This enables studies of concepts like “organizational effectiveness” and the “magnitude of the effects” associated event. Finally, examining these three elements, the organization, performance and the event, in conjunction with one another is a useful way to understand two key organizational transaction points. First, the moment immediately following the event when event-driven performance reigns and, second, that point where system stability and equilibrium are regained so that organization-driven performance (e.g., pursuit of a mission or goals) reigns.